Bull Market report card: How did our predictive powers fare?
The 2021 Bull Market list is our fourth attempt at predicting movers and shakers in the realm of old vehicles. To see how our past picks have done, we’ve tracked their values since publication in their respective lists. We’re not patting ourselves on the back, but the overall numbers prove us right. Mostly.
With the performance of three years of Bull Market picks now available, some trends are starting to stand out. Only 8 of the picks have been trucks or SUVs, but they’ve averaged 15 percent appreciation per year compared to just 11 percent for the cars. American cars and trucks have been the most numerous and the most consistent performers. German cars are the second most common, however, appreciation has been more volatile for those picks. Japanese, Italian, and British picks are too few to make any definite conclusions yet.
Our picks from 2018 show vintage SUVs are doing well. Performance cars from the 1990s and 2000s are also up, but the 2001–2005 Porsche 911 Turbo (996 generation) and the 1993-2002 Pontiac Firebird Firehawk are comparatively lagging. With the Porsche being relatively common, if you own one and don’t enjoy it, now might be a good time to sell. The Pontiac is rarer, and the market for Firehawks moves more slowly.
The 2019 list features a variety of vehicles, but the best market performer has been the Buick Roadmaster Estate. Second place goes to the 1985–1989 Toyota MR2, which might just fit inside the Roadmaster. Laggards on the list include the 1980–1986 Ford Bronco, the 1972–1975 BMW 3.0 CSL, and the Pontiac G8 GXP. As with the 911 Turbo from the 2018 list, the Bronco is more common and might be worth selling if you’d rather have a new Bronco. The BMW and the Pontiac could be worth hanging onto for a bit longer, given that those markets tend to move more slowly.
Of the 2020 picks, some vehicles have dipped, but we expect those values to recover soon. Others are up double-digit percentages, except for two performance car icons: The 1997–2001 Acura Integra Type R and 1996–2002 Dodge Viper GTS. These are both likely to be familiar to many enthusiasts, so expect values to change more gradually.