Prices in the collector-car market soften further
The Hagerty Market Rating has dropped below 70 and out of the “rapid expansion” range for the first time since fall 2021. Its 69.5 rating is now on the high end of the “expanding market” range of the Hagerty Market Rating bell curve.
Prices continue to soften across the market. Median sales price at auction has dropped back to March 2020 levels. This metric is, however, likely to bounce back after dozens of seven-figure sales at this week’s Monterey auctions hit the books.
Sales between private parties are also showing cracks. Both the average sale price and the percentage of cars selling above insured value have dropped several months in a row.
Collectors are increasing insured values at a much slower rate compared to the market’s peak in 2022, although the ratio is still heavily in the positive direction. For every ten collectors who call Hagerty to increase the insured value of their “broad-market” vehicle (valued under $200K), only one calls to decrease values. At its peak, this ratio was 17:1. This ratio has consistently decreased over the course of 2023. For “high-end” vehicles (valued over $200K), the current ratio is nearly 4:1.
The cooling of the market has seeped into the Hagerty Price Guide. While overall values in the price guide have been dropping slowly, this month is the first time in over a year that all component metrics from the price guide (i.e., median value, average value, Hagerty Hundred™ index value, Hagerty Blue Chip index value) used in the Market Rating decreased together.
Nearly every single metric that factors into the Hagerty Market Rating decreased this month. Of the 15 component metrics we track, the combined macroeconomic indicator was the only one that increased—reaching its highest point since September 2022. A renewed positive outlook in the overall economy has balanced out softening prices seen by our industry experts, and as a result their market optimism remains flat compared to last month.
Expert opinions may change after this week’s Monterey auctions, where the high-end of the market will be tested. Often, trends in the classic car market first show at public auctions for high-profile vehicles. This year will be no different.
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For a detailed explainer on how the Hagerty Market Rating is assembled, please click here.