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The Collector Car Market Is Now Flat
The Hagerty Market Rating measures the current status of the collector car market in terms of activity or “heat,” directional momentum, and the underlying strength of the market. It is expressed as a closed 0-100 number with a corresponding open-ended index (like the DJIA or NASDAQ Composite). To learn more about how we calculate the Hagerty Market Rating, read here.
Last month, the Hagerty Market Rating dipped to pre-pandemic levels but avoided dropping below 60, which indicates a flat collector car market. After a 0.54-point drop this month, though, the rating has officially moved into the 50s. This is the first time since the fall of 2020 and only the second time in the last 13-and-a-half years that the Market Rating has been in the “flat market” territory. Since 2012, the Rating has kept steady in the 60s and 70s, while the market grew. But prior to 2012, a score in the 50s (and even the 40s) was very common.
The Hagerty Market Index, an open-ended stock-market-style version of the Market Rating, decreased by 0.60 points this month. In the 28 months following the Hagerty Market Index’s high point in late 2022, the Index has only increased twice. While currently at its lowest value in over three years, it is still relatively high compared to the Index’s 18-year-long history, as visible in the chart below.
Speaking of the stock market, various uncertainties in recent weeks have caused the markets to waver. Our combined macro-economic indicator dropped 1.32 points this month to its lowest value since early 2021. This was the largest single-month drop since the start of the 2020 pandemic. What makes this drop even more significant is that it occurred during a month when inflation actually reversed.
Despite dozens of seven-figure sales at the Florida auctions last month hitting our books, the Auction Median Sale Price dropped another 0.88 points this month. The 0.05% drop in inflation couldn’t outpace the $200 actual value drop in this metric. It’s current real value of $27,300 is the lowest Median Sale Price in nearly 5 years. When accounting for inflation, it’s at its all-time lowest point.
Prices in the private market have also been soft, with the Average Sale Price falling slightly to $24,289. Now, only 38.87% of cars are selling above their insured value despite insured values raising at a much slower pace than in years past. The ratio of insured value increases-to-decreases is at its lowest point in over three years for mainstream, broad-market vehicles and at its second lowest point in 5 years for vehicles valued over $250,000.
However, these high-dollar vehicles fared better in the newest release of the Hagerty Price Guide, which received an update on April 1. Of the seven individual metrics tied to the price guide, the Blue Chip Index—comprised of the average #2 (“excellent”) condition value of 25 seven-figure cars—was the only one to increase, albeit by only 0.10-points. On the other end of the spectrum, the Hagerty Hundred—our Price Guide index for the 100 most insured vehicles—dropped another 0.88 points to its lowest value to date. Average and median condition #3 (“good”) values dropped to their lowest points since late 2024, but were likely helped by the negative inflation this month.
As auction season slows a bit and the driving season begins, its likely that the Hagerty Market Rating will continue to slide. If it remains in the 50s next month, it will be the first time the Rating has seen consecutive months below 60 since mid-2011.
Now I know why I haven’t had many bites on my 2006 Corvette Convertible with 9,000 miles.
I don’t see the market changing too much right now. I’m surprised nothing has really tanked so far.
In a few more years you will see interest in these 50’s, 60’s, and 70’s muscle and collector cars drop through the floor.
With few exceptions, members of younger generations have no interest in these older vehicles. They have their own “muscle cars” that they grew up with. It will get to the point that owners of these classics will hardly be able to even give them away.
I agree with Fox and have been saying the same thing for a long time now. Just look at the market for cars from the 20s 30s 40s and 50s. The same will happen with the muscle cars from the 60s, 70s. soon enough. I have a few 60s cars (and I’m an old curmudgeon). No one really notices them when I’m driving them. Younger drivers have no relationship with those cars.
I hope Fox and Zeman are on the mark…being in my late 60s I am still waiting for my 1968 Charger R/T in deep green with Black vinyl top…at an affordable level!!!
Don’t hold your breath, posters on car forums have been parroting that same “no kids are interested in these cars, their current owners will all age out and die soon and car values will then crash” line for the last 20 years. Still waiting for that to happen, but the only thing that actually does get old is listening to that prediction over and over year after year.
There are so many moving pieces in predicting future values of anything, be it vintage cars, houses, or stocks that it’s anyone’s guess what’ll happen. Enjoy the car hobby for the cars, and whatever happens with values shouldn’t be that main focus anyway is my viewpoint.
I think “flat” is being charitable at best, and it’s going to get a lot worse before it gets better. I have an XKE for sale, and I’ll I’ve been getting are low-balling bottom-feeders.
My prediction is it will take at least 5 to 10 years to rebound, which is going to really hurt the boomers trying to unload their muscle cars as they shuffle off this mortal coil.
Where is your XKE listed? Vern
I just had my 1969 XKE Cov. burn to ground on 1/7 in the palisades, how much did you want for your car?
My 1967 Lola T-70 Mk 3 has lots of lookers online but no movement….
I’m still a believer that rarity drives the collector car market (just like in any collectible investment). There are too many Corvettes and Mustangs in the marketplace so it is not surprising that selling prices are depressed. Hell, even an American Motors Marlin will auction higher than just a few years ago. This is why I am hanging onto my 2005 Crossfire SRT-6 roadster with less than 1000 in the US. At 4.9 Seconds 0-60, it’s faster than most production “muscle” cars.
Himm, interesting comment “even an American Motors Marlin’ well, I have one and the attention it gets everywhere I go far surpasses anything else.
It might be there are less flippers and more true collectors. Yea I would like to have a Hemi Cuda or a SD455 Trans Am, but nice examples are through the roof. I see a lot of so called nice muscle cars for sale on line, but when you zoom in on pictures you see things like rust bubbles on the door skin edges or fender and doors with excessive gaps indicating past damage. And then there are the auctions where there are more Z28s or SS Chevelles there than what were made. Buyers beware.
RC, I agree with the analysis that there are less flippers for the 70s cars. I suspect the reason is we collectors of that era are knowledgeable about the cars and what to look for regarding condition.
Flippers typically like to prey on the folks that look at the bling and not really understand the true condition of the vehicle.
I have to admit 30 years ago I was guilty of doing the same thing, I did it once, and only once, I ended up, pulling the fenders off the car and sending the rest of it to the crusher, it was that bad.
I am 73 and have always enjoyed building my own cars from someone else’s unfinished project. That has changed. Now it is more logical to buy a nice car and add air conditioning, carpet, that type of thing, basically “creature features”. The number of highly restored cars that were parked and forgotten is amazing. The kids, as I call them. Lol, don’t want them, they want twin turbo cars or an ev.
Totally agree with Edmon C Wheeler, re: that rarity drives the collector car market. And this is true with collector cars, real estate and everything else. Take real estate, the location, location, location call relates to the fact each location is unique; there’s only and if its desirable, the seller can pretty much name their price.