Many mainstream classics are finally cooling off

The indefatigable VW Beetle posted gains in the most recent Hagerty Price Guide, but other components in our Affordable Car Index lost ground. Andy Wakeman

For much of the last 24 months, the collector car market has been on an upward charge. That’s been a boon for sellers, but the average buyer hasn’t much enjoyed watching once-attainable metal climb out of reach. At long last, that trend appears to be slowing down. Based on data from the past three months, we can still point to cars on the rise, but more than an isolated few have begun to taper off.

As any good mechanic knows, when your standard instruments aren’t giving you enough information, it’s time for deeper diagnostics. One of the key tools on our shelf are indices based on the the Hagerty Price Guide. In fact, we have seven such indices: Blue Chip, British, Ferrari, Muscle Car, Postwar German, 1950s American, and Affordable.

Each index is comprised of the movers and shakers within a specific segment. Viewing the data in this manner gives insight into the health and trajectory of a specific part of the market, much like stock market indices can help suss out trends in sectors of the economy. Indices are calculated an average of the #2 (Excellent) condition of the component vehicles and are updated quarterly, along with the price guide.

Across the board, the market is doing quite well. Of the seven indices we track, six experienced growth, with four achieving an all-time high rating. The remaining index, 1950s American Cars, remained flat.

Delving deeper into the data, though, we see that there are a number of mainstream cars that are pulling back, despite overarching gains in their respective segments. Let’s take a look:

Affordable Segment

Time to redefine “affordable”?

Hagerty’s Affordable Car Index has been the most consistent gainer of all indices. So much, so, in fact, that the term “affordable” may no longer be appropriate. Component cars like the Datsun 240Z and 1970 Camaro SS 350 were once very inexpensive cars and have since exploded in value.

These cars, however, did not drive this quarter’s overall increase. Rather, huge gains from the likes of the Volkswagen Beetle balanced out losses by cars like the ‘65 Mustang GT and the MGB. What does this tell us? Some cars are staying within reach—like the 1949 Buick Roadmaster Sedanette, or the 1972 Triumph TR6—while others are still climbing.

Playing “what if” here, had Beetles not posted such substantial gains, the Affordable Index could very well have seen its first loss since 2011. The takeaway here is that the lower echelons of the market may be softening. Caveat: It is unreasonable to expect these cars to take a big enough step back to erase the regret many of us feel at not buying a 240Z, Beetle, or a TR6 back when they were dirt cheap. But maybe some sanity is returning into the market for the collector of more ordinary means.

Middle of the market

Mixed results

Movement was a tad more subdued in the meat of the hobby. The British, Muscle Car and 50s American indices all increased by 1 percent or less. Unlike the top of the market (see below), component cars for these segments had very mixed results.

Indices like Muscle Cars and British still reached all-time highs, but the rate of increases is clearly slowing. Zooming in closer, we see that a few significant gainers made up for a number of small losses. With 1950s American cars, there was plenty of activity but the gains and losses of various models washed each other out completely.

1965 Pontiac GTO front
Mecum

That’s not to say the middle of the market is declining. We’d call it leveling out or, in math-nerd speak, regressing to the mean. Many of the vehicles that have softened, like ’65 Pontiac GTOs and ’70 AAR Cudas, experienced incredible growth earlier in the year.

A caveat here is that the fall is typically a quiet time for buying and selling in this price range. Muscle car acolytes in particular, may have their sights set on the January sales in Kissimmee and Scottsdale.

Top of the market

Is the stock market’s loss the collector car market’s gain?

The top of the market is clearly influenced by activity coming out of Monterey. Our Blue Chip index, which measures the performance of the top end of the Price Guide, performed exceptionally well. Over half of the 25 component cars posted gains with four cars posting gains over 10 percent. Overall, the Blue Chip Index posted a 3 percent gain for the quarter, the biggest move in a year. More segment-specific upper-end market indices, like Ferrari and German, also posted a 3 percent increase. Like with Blue Chip, the Ferrari index saw over half the component vehicles gain value, while the German index experienced more focused increases at higher rates.

Ferrari 575M front
Broad Arrow Auctions

To some extent, these results echo the gangbusters sales at Monterey in August. Traditionally, we see a slowdown of the top of the market subsequent to Monterey, so it should come as no surprise if these indicators level off somewhat in the fourth quarter. Yet the top of the market’s strong showing in late summer—even as other segments were softening—could also be a sign that, with inflation high and the stock market underperforming, some high-net-worth individuals see million-dollar cars as a safe (and fun) port in the storm.

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Comments

    Just sold my baby blue 57 Chevy truck on bring a trailer two months ago for 47.000
    i siill have a 57 Nomad and waiting for my Z06 Manual 2017 ,Iam 73 still want to enjoy shifting .
    Check my web page out .rtruman.com

    Interesting the upturn of two years ago started after the massive downturn of Covid, bought my Allantes (89s had more power) for essentially pocket change.
    Second it is interesting that they look at #2 cars (regional show winners) while I have always looked for 3 or 3+ cars (ones you can drive and take to a local show) and improved them.
    Finally the changing traffic has also affected collectibles. Cars I loved to drive (Fieros, SLKs) are too low for giant SUVs and raised Pickups to see in the next lane. Air horns are a necessity.
    So have always had interesting cars (first car had a DOHC-6 and 4 wheel disks), today my DDs have the same but are larger. Two doors are hard to find where once upon a time they were cheaper than four doors. And so it goes.

    I’m 81 and just finishing what may be my last build. 56 F100, not a luxury car but a pickup. I don’t care how old I get, I’ll still enjoy cars, both looking at them and driving them and even working on them. If you were a car guy (gear head) when you were young, you’re probably still a car guy.

    Interest rates coming off zero will have some effect but these cars are not practical decisions anyway. Fuel is also a consideration if you actually want to enjoy the car. That AAR Cuda with a 340 6bbl isn’t going to really be that much faster than a Barracuda with an incredibly reliable 318. You cannot really use that extra power anyway unless you don’t mind looking like you deliver pizzas for Dominos.

    Being an elder millennial, I feel I am carrying the waning torch of the love of cars (and things mechanical for that matter). All of the younger millennials and whatever the generations are called after that don’t care about anything. They don’t care about taking care of things because they have been conditioned to believe that old is bad and everything has a finite lifespan and needs to be replaced every year or they will be left behind because they don’t have the latest phone that is the exact same as the phone that came 4 iterations ago yet now has less features and a higher price. Most of them can’t even be bothered to get their license. It’s really hard to watch things change so quickly.

    With all that being said, I will never understand the over inflated values of incredibly unreliable and impossible to work on Italian cars. Just don’t get it.

    Some cars have been modified and / or non stock items. IE: Crager Wheels, “Drop a Chevy in it,” MoMo steering wheel, exchanging dashboard instrumentation., change suspension and steering.

    A “purist” such as I would not buy it unless the price is right and are these changes reversable.

    At 74 I spend as much time just ‘sitting and remembering’ in my restored 56 dodge as I do driving it. It’s a beautiful 3 toned piece of 50’s art and technology and I appreciate it as such. Worth? Priceless to me!
    I’ll let my heirs worry about $ value.

    Not much of a comment on the softening of classic car prices, which I think they are. My concern is with the choice of colors on the graph. Is the top line Ferrari or German? When you post a graph with a small scale on the y-axis and then make it even more difficult to read by changing the tone of the color, you render it useless to read. There are a lot of contrasting colors you could have used.

    I bought two collector cars over the past 14 months. So far they’re doing a heck of a lot better than my investments in terms of value. If they lose a little, so be it. In the meantime I am getting out there and driving them!

    My ‘67 Camaro RS/327/4-spd that I sold for $5500 is now selling for $40,000 with no upgrades. What happened? It’s still the same car, no more useful, yet it demands a much highe price. I’d have a hard time re-purchasing my old car knowing I’m just paying for appreciation with no appreciable difference in driving experience.

    I love these comments. I bought my 73 240z brand new when I was 21. I’m so tempted to sell it because it’s worth 8 times what I paid for it! Only problem is, when I look at it, all of those memories of being single in my 20’s and everything until now makes me dizzy trying to decide what to do. It’s amazing what two people could do in such a small car! Lol.

    At 75 I like the look, sound and feel of driving my 64 B as much as I did the first time I drove one in 64. I cant imagine that is going to change any time soon.

    I think the collector car market is a pretty safe bet for another 15 or 20yrs because Soooo many people are inheriting Money/Property ect ect–Now–“IF” we don’t do Something about the inequities (too many really poor people) there might not be enough customers to buy our Classics-

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