Many mainstream classics are finally cooling off
For much of the last 24 months, the collector car market has been on an upward charge. That’s been a boon for sellers, but the average buyer hasn’t much enjoyed watching once-attainable metal climb out of reach. At long last, that trend appears to be slowing down. Based on data from the past three months, we can still point to cars on the rise, but more than an isolated few have begun to taper off.
As any good mechanic knows, when your standard instruments aren’t giving you enough information, it’s time for deeper diagnostics. One of the key tools on our shelf are indices based on the the Hagerty Price Guide. In fact, we have seven such indices: Blue Chip, British, Ferrari, Muscle Car, Postwar German, 1950s American, and Affordable.
Each index is comprised of the movers and shakers within a specific segment. Viewing the data in this manner gives insight into the health and trajectory of a specific part of the market, much like stock market indices can help suss out trends in sectors of the economy. Indices are calculated an average of the #2 (Excellent) condition of the component vehicles and are updated quarterly, along with the price guide.
Across the board, the market is doing quite well. Of the seven indices we track, six experienced growth, with four achieving an all-time high rating. The remaining index, 1950s American Cars, remained flat.
Delving deeper into the data, though, we see that there are a number of mainstream cars that are pulling back, despite overarching gains in their respective segments. Let’s take a look:
Affordable Segment
Time to redefine “affordable”?
Hagerty’s Affordable Car Index has been the most consistent gainer of all indices. So much, so, in fact, that the term “affordable” may no longer be appropriate. Component cars like the Datsun 240Z and 1970 Camaro SS 350 were once very inexpensive cars and have since exploded in value.
These cars, however, did not drive this quarter’s overall increase. Rather, huge gains from the likes of the Volkswagen Beetle balanced out losses by cars like the ‘65 Mustang GT and the MGB. What does this tell us? Some cars are staying within reach—like the 1949 Buick Roadmaster Sedanette, or the 1972 Triumph TR6—while others are still climbing.
Playing “what if” here, had Beetles not posted such substantial gains, the Affordable Index could very well have seen its first loss since 2011. The takeaway here is that the lower echelons of the market may be softening. Caveat: It is unreasonable to expect these cars to take a big enough step back to erase the regret many of us feel at not buying a 240Z, Beetle, or a TR6 back when they were dirt cheap. But maybe some sanity is returning into the market for the collector of more ordinary means.
Middle of the market
Mixed results
Movement was a tad more subdued in the meat of the hobby. The British, Muscle Car and 50s American indices all increased by 1 percent or less. Unlike the top of the market (see below), component cars for these segments had very mixed results.
Indices like Muscle Cars and British still reached all-time highs, but the rate of increases is clearly slowing. Zooming in closer, we see that a few significant gainers made up for a number of small losses. With 1950s American cars, there was plenty of activity but the gains and losses of various models washed each other out completely.
That’s not to say the middle of the market is declining. We’d call it leveling out or, in math-nerd speak, regressing to the mean. Many of the vehicles that have softened, like ’65 Pontiac GTOs and ’70 AAR Cudas, experienced incredible growth earlier in the year.
A caveat here is that the fall is typically a quiet time for buying and selling in this price range. Muscle car acolytes in particular, may have their sights set on the January sales in Kissimmee and Scottsdale.
Top of the market
Is the stock market’s loss the collector car market’s gain?
The top of the market is clearly influenced by activity coming out of Monterey. Our Blue Chip index, which measures the performance of the top end of the Price Guide, performed exceptionally well. Over half of the 25 component cars posted gains with four cars posting gains over 10 percent. Overall, the Blue Chip Index posted a 3 percent gain for the quarter, the biggest move in a year. More segment-specific upper-end market indices, like Ferrari and German, also posted a 3 percent increase. Like with Blue Chip, the Ferrari index saw over half the component vehicles gain value, while the German index experienced more focused increases at higher rates.
To some extent, these results echo the gangbusters sales at Monterey in August. Traditionally, we see a slowdown of the top of the market subsequent to Monterey, so it should come as no surprise if these indicators level off somewhat in the fourth quarter. Yet the top of the market’s strong showing in late summer—even as other segments were softening—could also be a sign that, with inflation high and the stock market underperforming, some high-net-worth individuals see million-dollar cars as a safe (and fun) port in the storm.
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I love all of the geezer stories. I’m 66 now, and realize that my 560SL will not be so sought after by my kids/nephews generation. What will become of this beauty???
I too have an 89 560SL and I’m turning it into a generational car. My son agrees, don’t know about grandsons. I have it running almost like new, 97,000 miles, and looks pretty snappy.
I reverted back to fun to drive easy to work on cars/MG/VW/ Ghia. Tired of heavey metal 50s 60s era.
I sold my 1929 Ford Tudor and my 1976 Trans Am Firebird, both partially restored, with the intention of buying something all restored or original low mileage. Little did i know that anything approaching collector car level would sell for double what they sold for a year ago. I bid on several cars using what I considered a little too much, and was immediately out bid by 20 bidders with more money than brains. A car I could have bought for $7000.00 two years ago, and I bid for $8000.00 on BaT, went to someone who topped my $8000.00 bid with a bid of $16,000.00, when he could have bought it for $8500.00.
I just was involved in bidding on a car for $5,900.00 and I expected to continue the bidding, until I found out it was a dealerselling it, and they snuck in a comment about over $4000.00 for Prep and shipping”. I was so relieved when someone out-bid me at the last minute.
Going to B-J in Scottsdale this January and hope to find an affordable late model convertible. As Napolison states, there are many reasons for the pricing declines, and I hope it translates to better values at the auction. Having said that, all of my collector vehicles are sentimental in nature, not ‘investments’. There needs to be valuation for this unique segment, and insurance companies certainly love their statistics. At least Hagerty has some entertaining magazines and tech sites, which most insurers don’t offer. Many interesting opinions here as well. 😏
As long as there are car shows there will be true believers. Find the segment that fits your passion and enjoy the ride.
Don’t forget to throw in the other metric… A sinking economy, and more to come..
If you are worrying about price your in the wrong game, I have more money in my 1938 Buick than I can get out of it but that is not what I worry about it is the fun of driving it
My son is 35. He has been waiting for my ‘81 911 SC since he was old enough to think about cars. He knows it will be his someday and discusses every detail of of every potential upgrade with me.
All good comments stating the obvious only we all postpone the inevitable when it’s an affair of the heart. Each new generation’s interest in owning is waining. There is a substantial amount of care and feeding that accompanies classic vehicle ownership and a collection is something few people are or will be equipped to handle. Today we don’t own music, second homes can be rented and when it comes to cars they are a burden. Some classic casr don’t even turn heads. A 20 year old well patina 4X4 will attract more attention than a pristine icon. I was at a Porsche annual concours recently and the display class was as large as the judged field. Current owners aren’t up for the drill.
I left a comment about this article and see it was not posted, if you are going to censor comments based on whether they agree with your article or not than I may have to consider not continuing to subscribe to Hagerty lets drive together. I have 12 cars insured through this co and don’t appreciate any kind of censorship as long as no foul language or hostile comments are made
Thank you
Gene Rodgers
grodx1@gmail.com
Hello Gene, your post from 10:20 on 11/05 is published and I do not see any other posts of yours that might not be live. I am sorry for what you did experience but I assure you we are not censoring comments based on whether or not readers agree with our stories.
Could you label the graph to say if it is corrected for inflation (all values shown in Sept 2022 $, or whatever). If it’s not, it would be helpful to see it in both versions. With inflation so high this past 18-24 months, that might wipe out any apparent gains.
Sold a couple of beauties in my day; no regrets. In 1966 I got $500 for my ’31 five window Ford with a 327 chevy small block; used the money to buy an engagement ring my bride still wears after 55 years. In 1974 got $4,000 for my ’59 Porsche 356 A (with five original Rudge knock-off “winged” wheels, complete with brass hammer); used the money to pay the hospital bill for my first child. Now thinking about selling my rust-free GMC square body pickup to pay for a pre-paid funeral and buy an E-bike. It’s all relative.
Ah yes, It’s the way of travel not the destination. 1987 Porsche 930, category 2. I’m nearly 80, the car, nearly 90K, orig. miles. I enjoy driving, to the cars and coffee, more than getting there. EVERY time on the road, the thumbs up. In the 13 years of ownership I have been followed home 3 times with “ready to sell” inquiriy, or just look see. How can you ever get tired of feeling like you are BMOC! My wife abhores my 50 years old college jersey. I will never part with either of them! Just say’n.
“My wife abhores my 50 years old college jersey. I will never part with either of them!”
Yeah, keep the wife and the jersey!
My 1979 Camaro still ain’t worth squat. But Jimmy crack corn and I don’t care!
All great comments in which I learn so much from. Time to head out and finish the rear brakes on the Fiat 124 Spyder -ergonomically correct mechanic with a 2 post lift. It helps with these old bones. Working on cars and bikes seems to be my passion as much as driving them.
I am now 70, but when I was 40, shoveling too much snow, morning and evening in Michigan for about 2 weeks straight wrecked a lower disc. So I definitely knew back then that in retirement I would be getting a car lift (or two). I call them my “medical devices” and they enable me to continue changing engines, transmissions, making adjustments, maintenance, easier cleaning, etc. Michigan is a great place to be “from” in retirement for so many reasons – especially if you want to drive classic cars year ’round, avoid slip and fall accidents, have far fewer colds and flu… Longer, healthier, more active life in Florida – with a custom height air conditioned garage and a couple of car lifts.