When was the last time the term “bottom of the barrel” was associated with the 2005–06 Ford GT? The 1959–67 Austin-Healey 3000? The 1964–68 Porsche 911? How about never? OK, so maybe the term is a little harsh — and, in reality, not remotely true on its face — but numbers don’t lie.
As crazy as it sounds, when it comes to determining what’s hot and what’s not, those three automobiles rank at the bottom on the most recent Hagerty Vehicle Rating*. The HVR tracks a car’s performance relative to the entire collector car market. Based on a 0–100 scale, a car rated at 50 is keeping pace with the overall market. A car scoring higher than 50 is appreciating more quickly, while a score below 50 indicates the car is lagging.
The 2005–06 Ford GT has stalled at 4 points. That’s correct, 4.
“Ford GT prices are a victim of their own success,” says Brian Rabold, Hagerty Vice President of Valuation Services. “The car was a real bright spot in 2014–15, but that brought a glut to market — almost all with low miles and in great condition — and prices have dropped quickly. This is a common market phenomenon, and we often see long-term owners start to offload cars once they increase in price past about 25 percent. A number of cars on the list fall into that category.”
Speaking to the Austin-Healey 3000, which scored a 7, Rabold says: “As affordable and reliable modern cars reach the bottom of their depreciation curve, 1950s and ’60s British sports cars are facing a lot of competition. A car like a Mazda Miata, for example, competes in terms of driving experience while often being cheaper and easier to own.”
Also falling near the bottom of the ratings this go-around is the 1985–95 Ferrari Testarossa, now rated at 19. Rabold says the Testarossa is the biggest surprise on the list. “Like the Ford GT, the Testarossa had a healthy run that has recently levelled out somewhat, but I think that quality examples still have a good long-term upside. Demographically speaking, they are well positioned to stay in demand for the foreseeable future. Testarossas are automotive icons. Like the Bel Air, Mustang, Camaro, Continental and Eldorado, for a lot of people they personify the classic car world.”
The Hagerty Vehicle Rating is derived through the use of the following data:
- Hagerty Price Guide — Measures the change in value of #3-condition (good) cars.
- Insured Activity — Measures how many cars have been added to Hagerty’s insured book and their average value at the time they’re added.
- Quote Activity — Measures how many cars have been quoted.
- Auction Activity — Measures the number of cars, their average sale price and the sell-through rate for those cars.
- Private Sales Activity — Measures number of cars sold, average sale price and what percentage of them sell above their insured value.
Here’s a complete look at the cars bringing up the bottom of the Hagerty Vehicle Rating: