22 August 2016

Monterey auction week totals slide for second consecutive year

Star cars excel, but overall sell-through rates lag

Preliminary totals are in for the 2016 Monterey auctions and after four days of sales, $344.9M worth of cars, trucks and motorcycles were sold across five venues. There will certainly be several after-sales that push numbers higher, but this marks the second-consecutive down year for the Monterey sales and the biggest year-over-year drop since 2003.

Totals were bolstered by some of the most exclusive cars ever to be offered at auction, with the seven cars valued above $10M making up the largest percentage of Monterey sales ever (32%). Rare examples continue to excel—whether that applies to specific models, production numbers, specification, provenance, or condition. New records were set for a British car, an American car, a French car, a prewar car, and more.

Outside that narrow “best of the best” slice, however, bidding was slow and sell-through rates were the lowest in Monterey since at least 2000. The sales rate for cars priced above $100,000, for example, fell 15 points, from 72% to 57%. For the 581 vehicles in this tier that Hagerty inspected, the vast majority was bid to amounts that were in line with Hagerty Price Guide values given vehicle condition. So it seems that buyers are more in tune with the new market-adjusted prices than sellers at the moment, and are not allowing themselves to pay for future gains now. The same was true for cars priced below $50,000, although those cars saw only a three-point drop in sell-through rate.

Cars from the 1990s and newer struggled overall, with the exception of Ford GTs, the two LaFerraris, and a number of Ferrari models from a range of years continue to readjust. Condition for condition, 1970s Daytona coupes were bid to amounts that haven’t been lower in North America since January 2014. Some models, like the 275 GTB and 330 GTC of the 1960s, sank to levels not seen at auction since August 2013.

Aside from some of the Ferraris mentioned above, cars from the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s mostly held steady. Collectively, these cars had a 58% sell-through rate, which was much higher than the remaining eras. At the sub-$100,000 level and especially for cars priced above $1M, this era had a much larger percentage of cars sell above Hagerty Price Guide values for their corresponding condition.

The Monterey auctions set the tone for the remainder of the year, and the message stemming from this year’s sales is that all but the most exceptional examples of a given model are taking a pause. Owners who were testing the market have likely missed their window for now. The market has moved on from 2014, and so too should sellers.

According to the Hagerty Market Rating, the market overall beyond the highly visible public auctions remains strong and steady since it began leveling out after hitting an all time high in May 2015, fueled by five years of massive year-over-year growth.

Listed below are the raw results witnessed by Hagerty during the live auctions and may not factor in any post-sale deals that have occurred. These numbers include the appropriate buyer’s premiums.

Overall from all auction companies
Cumulative Total: $344.9M
719/1,278 lots sold: 56% sell-through rate
Average Sale Price: $479,642
Median Sale Price: $93,500

2015 Cumulative Results
Cumulative Total: $396.8M
870/1,387 lots sold: 58% sell-through rate
Average Sale Price: $456,067
Median Sale Price: $93,500

Overall Top 10 Sales from all auctions:

  1. 1955 Jaguar D-Type Roadster (RM Sotheby's) sold for $21,780,000
  2. 1939 Alfa Romeo 8C 2900B Lungo Spider (RM Sotheby's) sold for $19,800,000
  3. 1959 Ferrari 250 GT California LWB Alloy Spider (Gooding & Company) sold for $18,150,000
  4. 1962 Shelby Cobra 260 Roadster (RM Sotheby's) sold for $13,750,000
  5. 1960 Ferrari 250 GT SWB Competizione Coupe (Gooding & Company) sold for $13,500,000
  6. 1933 Alfa Romeo 8C 2300 Monza Roadster (Gooding & Company) sold for $11,990,000
  7. 1932 Bugatti Type 55 Roadster (Gooding & Company) sold for $10,400,00
  8. 1956 Ferrari 250 GT TdF Coupe (RM Sotheby's) sold for $5,7200,00
  9. 1950 Ferrari 166 MM Berlinetta (Gooding & Company) sold for $5,445,000
  10. 1955 Ferrari 750 Monza Spider (RM Sotheby's)sold for $5,225,000

Individual results from each company

GOODING & COMPANY
Sunday total: $52.7M
43/57 lots sold: 75% sell-through rate
Average Sale Price: $1,225,336
Median Sale Price: $471,700

Top 10 Sunday Sales:

  1. 1933 Alfa Romeo 8C 2300 Monza Roadster sold for $11,990,000
  2. 1932 Bugatti Type 55 Roadster sold for $10,400,000
  3. 1957 Maserati A6G/54 Spider sold for $3,300,000
  4. 1956 Aston Martin DB2/4 Bertone Spyder sold for $3,080,000
  5. 1968 Ferrari 330 GTS Spider sold for $2,502,500
  6. 1985 Ferrari 288 GTO Coupe sold for $2,420,000
  7. 1932 Rolls-Royce Phantom II Berline sold for $1,760,000
  8. 1960 Ferrari 250 GT Series II Cabriolet sold for $1,500,000
  9. 1971 Maserati Ghibli 4.9 SS Spider sold for $1,500,000
  10. 1956 Ferrari 250 GT Boano Coupe sold for $1,485,000

Cumulative Total: $129.8M
114/137 lots sold: 83% sell-through rate
Average Sale Price: $1,138,429
Median Sale Price: $330,000

Overall Top 10 Sales:

  1. 1959 Ferrari 250 GT California LWB Alloy Spider sold for $18,150,000
  2. 1960 Ferrari 250 GT SWB Competizione Coupe sold for $13,500,000
  3. 1933 Alfa Romeo 8C 2300 Monza Roadster sold for $11,990,000
  4. 1932 Bugatti Type 55 Roadster sold for $10,400,000
  5. 1950 Ferrari 166 MM Berlinetta sold for $5,445,000
  6. 1979 Porsche 935 Coupe sold for $4,840,000
  7. 1957 Maserati A6G/54 Spider sold for $3,300,000
  8. 1967 Ferrari 275 GTB/4 Coupe sold for $3,245,000
  9. 1956 Aston Martin DB2/4 Bertone Spyder sold for $3,080,000
  10. 1968 Ferrari 330 GTS Spider sold for $2,502,500

2015 Cumulative Results
Total: $128.1M
115/129 lots sold: 89% sell-through rate
Average Sale Price: $1,113,896
Median Sale Price: $440,000

RM SOTHEBY’S
Cumulative Total: $123.1M
85/100 lots sold: 85% sell-through rate
Average Sale Price: $1,448,565
Median Sale Price: $572,000

Overall Top 10 Sales:

  1. 1955 Jaguar D-Type Roadster sold for $21,780,000
  2. 1939 Alfa Romeo 8C 2900B Lungo Spider sold for $19,800,000
  3. 1962 Shelby Cobra 260 Roadster sold for $13,750,000
  4. 1956 Ferrari 250 GT TdF Coupe sold for $5,720,000
  5. 1955 Ferrari 750 Monza Spider sold for $5,225,000
  6. 1966 Ford GT40 Mk I Road Coupe sold for $2,900,000
  7. 1964 Ferrari 500 Superfast Series I Coupe sold for $2,750,000
  8. 1973 Ferrari 365 GTS/4 Daytona Spider sold for $2,475,000
  9. 1957 BMW 507 Roadster sold for $2,145,000
  10. 1963 Ferrari 250 GT Lusso Coupe sold for $2,090,000

2015 Cumulative Results
Total: $167.2M
126/149 lots sold: 85% sell-through rate
Average Sale Price: $1,328,401
Median Sale Price: $420,750

MECUM
Cumulative Total: $47.1M
306/698 lots sold: 44% sell-through rate
Average Sale Price: $153,880
Median Sale Price: $51,975

Overall Top 10 Sales:

  1. 2014 Ferrari LaFerrari Coupe sold for $5,170,000
  2. 1966 Ford GT40 Mk I Road Coupe sold for $4,840,000
  3. 1985 Ferrari 288 GTO Coupe sold for $3,300,000
  4. 2014 McLaren P1 Coupe sold for $2,035,000
  5. 2005 Porsche Carrera GT Coupe sold for $1,155,000
  6. 2011 Ferrari 599 SA Aperta Spider sold for $1,155,000
  7. 2006 Bugatti Veyron 16.4 Coupe sold for $1,100,000
  8. 1965 Shelby Cobra 289 R&P Roadster sold for $1,045,000
  9. 1968 Lamborghini Miura P400 Coupe sold for $869,000
  10. 2011 Ferrari 599 GTO Coupe sold for $748,000

2015 Cumulative Results
Total: $44.6M
380/657 lots sold: 58% sell-through rate
Average Sale Price: $117,418
Median Sale Price: $48,400

BONHAMS
Overall total: $34.6M
100/115 lots sold: 87% sell-through rate
Average Sale Price: $345,548
Median Sale Price: $121,000

Overall Top 10 Sales:

  1. 1931 Bugatti Type 51 Grand Prix Roadster sold for $4,000,000
  2. 2014 Ferrari LaFerrari Coupe sold for $3,685,000
  3. 1904 Mercedes-Simplex 28-32HP Rear Entrance Tonneau sold for $2,805,000
  4. 1985 Ferrari 288 GTO Coupe sold for $2,112,000
  5. 2014 McLaren P1 Coupe sold for $2,090,000
  6. 1955 Lancia Aurelia B24 Spider America sold for $1,402,500
  7. 1930 Duesenberg Model J Murphy Town Car sold for $1,254,000
  8. 1989 Ferrari F40 Coupe sold for $1,155,000
  9. 1956 Porsche 356A Carrera GS Speedster sold for $891,000
  10. 1965 Shelby Cobra 289 R&P Roadster sold for $880,000

2015 Cumulative Results
Total: $45.7M
96/109 lots sold: 88% sell-through rate
Average Sale Price: $476,048
Median Sale Price: $198,000

RUSSO AND STEELE
Cumulative Total: $10.3M
114/228 lots sold: 50% sell-through rate
Average Sale Price: $94,454
Median Sale Price: $51,500

Overall Top 10 Sales:

  1. 1955 Mercedes-Benz 300SL Gullwing Coupe sold for $1,155,000
  2. 2004 Ford GT Pre-Production Prototype Coupe sold for $836,000
  3. 1993 Jaguar XJ 220 Coupe sold for $435,000
  4. 2014 Mercedes-Benz SLS AMG Black Series Coupe sold for $418,000
  5. 2009 Ferrari 430 Spider sold for $355,000
  6. 1970 Ferrari 365 GT Coupe 2+2 sold for $346,500
  7. 1988 Lamborghini Countach LP5000 Quattrovalvole Coupe sold for $321,750
  8. 1957 Porsche 356A Speedster sold for $250,000
  9. 2000 Ferrari 550 Maranello Coupe sold for $194,700
  10. 1955 Facel Vega FV1 Coupe sold for $181,500

2015 Cumulative Results
Total: $10.2M
130/209 lots sold: 62% sell-through rate
Average Sale Price: $78,716
Median Sale Price: $47,850

9 Reader Comments

  • 1
    Chad MT Montana August 24, 2016 at 16:04
    It's really about time that collector car prices adjusted down, the prices being paid have been ridiculously high, they still are in my opinion. The small decline that occurred at Monterey is negligible in the big picture, there is still plenty of play money out there and what seems to be an increasing pool of buyers willing to fulfil their fantasies, or flaunt their status.
  • 2
    Mike Heroy Angola, IN August 24, 2016 at 17:06
    I was amazed by a couple of the Saturday cars at Gooding- specifically Lot's 37 and 41, the Continental Mark II and the Mercedes 300SEL 6.3, both of which have lagged the market for years. As an owner, I'm particularly pleased about the Mark II- it's a design icon that has always deserved better recognition in the market.
  • 3
    mark Tempe, AZ August 24, 2016 at 18:02
    Seems the drop that occurred in January, 2016 in Scottsdale is continuing!
  • 4
    Dave A. Arizona August 24, 2016 at 22:43
    We are likely on the cusp of another recession; and the time for expensive garage toys that will likely not see much daylight is passing. As for ordinary classics that will be driven, there will always be a market for those vehicles.
  • 5
    Chris M Palm Beach, FL August 25, 2016 at 15:20
    Dave A, it is actually the opposite. The higher the value and rarer the car ("expensive garage toys that will not see much daylight") did well: 19.8 million, 19.5 million, etc. Its the drivable "ordinary classics" that were stagnant, but not necessarially down (million dollar Cobras and Mercedes 300SLs) were common, and well bought and sold. Great drivers cars that are questionable classics (modern Ferraris, Porsches, etc) were a little soft as they should be - from a collectors perspective, they are not collectible...yet. Cheers!
  • 6
    William L Northern California August 25, 2016 at 21:21
    The price for collectibles of every kind goes up when the stock market is bad and down when the stock market is good. If people can't make money in the market or in real estate they start buying collectible art, books, cars, etc. .
  • 7
    Jim Liberty Costa Mesa, CA September 2, 2016 at 18:14
    I am surprised at the sale of the 356 Speedster at $250,000 considering past sales. That said, I have not understood the upward spiral of this model. But the market speaks. Interesting that there were no other Porsche 356 sales. ...............Jim.
  • 8
    Clint Sacramento, CA September 2, 2016 at 11:49
    The collector car market is largely immune from fluctuations in other markets, in my opinion. While it is hard to enjoy a stock certificate or gold coin that just sits in a safe or safe deposit box, a collector car can be enjoyed, whether driven, vintage raced or put on display, as well as gain value or simply protect your savings.
  • 9
    Robert California September 24, 2016 at 01:36
    I posted this about a year ago, I believe it is relevant. "Here is my background and then a perspective on the bubble that I sent to a friend just starting to look for a weekend/collector car, he asked my opinion. I restored a 190SL 30 years ago, had it for 8 years. I like all types of cars. After a long hiatus, I am back, my 17 year old son and I just bought a 240z with 70% original paint, OK condition, inexpensive in comparison to other collectibles now days, minimal rust, good car for him to tinker around with while learning about cars. I grew up and live in California. "Tim, Yep I think so, no guarantee but I think so. This bubble can take 12 to 24 months to deflate, it won't crash like the stock market, (actually a bear stock markets do not go straight down either). If you want a Sunday driver that is not a collector car, like a S 2000 or a 3 year old Mercedes convertible, buy it now if you want, although the Mercedes may still have a lot of normal depreciation left on it. If you want a "modern" collector car like a Porsche 993 or NSX, I would wait for the implosion. 1.) High production number like the 240Z (160,000), never went that high in price. 2.) The semi high production number cars, like the NSX (9000), Z8 (5,700), 190SL (25,000, estimate's are that half are left), 280SL (48,000) and several Porsche's shot up like crazy. These are the ones most vulnerable to a large % price drop. 3.) Low production numbers 300SL (1500), Ferrari GTO (30) may not drop as much % wise. They are in the purview of the super rich. In the articles below you will read quite a few reasons why we are at a market top, and I agree with them for the most part, but I have a couple of my own ideas: 1.) Take for example the 190SL: Guys like me over the years would restore them, because they loved the car, it did not make economic sense, they just did. Now, because the 300SL shot up in price out of reach to a lot of investors, they look for the next best thing, the 190SL or the 280SL, and because they don't know about cars, and because of the high price of restoring them, they want them already restored, and pay a big premium for them. At this point there are only a few #1 perfectly restored 190SL's out there, so the price shoots up, but now the price is so high ($250k to $300K), it makes economic sense for the restoration shops/ hack shops to start restoring them, and it takes time to restore them. Then all of a sudden these #1 cars start coming out of the woodwork and the ratio seller to buyer changes, at the same time the market is topping out. Boom! They start taking a dive, the 190SL currently is. The Corvette is, and soon the Porsche's. 2.) Investors buy stock. Art collectors buy a painting and hang it on the wall. Stamp and gun collectors, put them in a safe and that is it, not much else to do but admire them once and awhile. It takes around $450k to have a 300SL restored to concourse condition, $150k to $200k? for a 190SL. Cars, if you enjoy them, drive them, you don't mind as much spending money on them, but investment #1 grade collector cars are another creature altogether. Investment grade has to be perfectly restored to like original condition. Once it is done it starts to deteriorate. Once you take it to car shows, it has been seen now, not worth as much. You have to keep it in a climate controlled garage. You have to keep fixing things that go wrong. Good luck trying to find someone nearby that knows how to fix a very complex 300SL fuel injection system or the 190SL solex carburetors. (A friend was working on a 1934 Mercedes 540k, he needed a new starter spring, a couple inches long in size, he found one through the Mercedes Benz Classic car center, they wanted $1700! Choke!) (Another friend has a 1970 Jaguar E type coupe', finally he found this great mechanic... I will tell you the rest of the story next time I see you) Suffice it to say these "Investors" are going to get tired of continually spending money and taking care of these things, (because they don't have the passion) at the same time the market starts softening up, so they start dumping them. Look out below! Check the articles below. The warning signs are all there, Like "this time is different" or "investors" buying, but not knowing what they are buying". See fourth article, everybody is getting into car collecting now. That is the time to cut and run. Warren Buffets paraphrased quote applies here: "Be greedy when others are fearful, be fearful when others are greedy." or Philip Rothschild, "Buy when there is blood in the streets!". Cheers," Copy and paste: http://britishsportscars.com/blog/2015/04/market-r... http://thegoodfellowperspective.com/the-dashboard-... http://www.corvetted.com/weak-corvette-collector-m... http://wolfstreet.com/2015/03/19/brett-eversole-cl... http://www.safehaven.com/article/37710/great-cars-...

Join the Discussion