4 May 2016

Market Update: Hagerty Price Guide 30

Lately, much fuss has been made about the collector car market’s current state, with opinions ranging from wildly optimistic to downright dire. The market, of course, isn’t necessarily a unified entity, which means one can find evidence to support a particular stance, even when those stances may be conflicting. An objective look shows that the majority of cars published in Hagerty Price Guide book 30 held their value, with the strongest segment being cars valued below $100,000—the bracket covering perhaps 95% of the collector cars on the road.

Of course, just because the market isn’t on life support doesn’t mean it isn’t catching its breath—it has been in a full sprint for the past three years after all. While the entry level is vibrant, the market at large is clearly transitioning. In this installment of Hagerty Price Guide, the average price increase was the lowest it has been since May 2009. Secondly, more models declined in value than any time since January 2014. The upswings just weren't as big this time around and downswings were more common.

One of the clearest signs of a shifting market can be seen among Hagerty’s collector car indices. Of the seven primary indices Hagerty publishes, the top three (Blue Chip, Ferrari, and German) all lost ground for the first time in more than six years. Granted the changes were minimal (-1%, -1%, and -2% respectively), but any move downward is in stark contrast to the radical growth these segments were recording. The remaining four indices all increased by 1% or less.

Another sign of a shifting market is in the cars comprising this book’s top movers. Over the past several years, the biggest gainers from book to book were nearly all Ferraris, Porsches and more modern exotic and sports cars. This time around the list is much more diverse, and skews to more affordable price levels.

Here is a selection of the biggest movers in this volume:

On the flip side, significant losses were recorded by some of the very models that saw some of the biggest gains over the past 24 months:

We expect prices to continue levelling out over the next four months, with models that appreciated most wildly over the past two to three years leading the decline. Those depreciations, however, aren’t likely to roll back to levels that predate the run-up. Gains, on the other hand, will likely be more focused than they were in 2014 and even 2015 to some extent, and be smaller than newcomers might be used to.

6 Reader Comments

  • 1
    John California May 4, 2016 at 16:32
    The car guys buy the stuff under $100k because they love them, the real rich buy the very, very rare like a 250 Cal. Spyder or GTO because someone is selling. The fools are buying the stuff in the middle that there is just too many, be it a GTE Ferrari, Daytona, or Dino and are just waiting for their haircut as the dealers try to prop up prices, re: 1990.
  • 2
    Al Smith Great Falls Mt May 4, 2016 at 17:54
    So ok, lots of valuations, thanks! But only back into the 40's. Many of us own Fords, Chevy's, etc., predating the fab 40's. How about my 27 Mod T coupe? Or my 30 Mod A Ford? Be nice to know the values.
  • 3
    Tom Chown Dunnellon (Ocala) FL May 5, 2016 at 14:48
    What value change has occurred in the last couple years on mid-50 ('54-'57) Buicks? I have a 1956 Super convertible in good (not excellent) shape I paid $50K for five years ago. Just curious as to the trend. Tom
  • 4
    Barrie Robinson Barrie, Ontario May 5, 2016 at 09:15
    The Aston Martin Feltham Club keeps a running table of auction results for pre-DB2, DB2 and DB 2/4 Aston Martin models. The trend seems to be very much on the up especially as production figures are quite small.
  • 5
    Bob Ferraris New Jersey May 10, 2016 at 09:42
    Hi Brian, Could you please comment on the recent asterick if you will to Ferrari f355 and 360 valuations that adds 30K to the prices for a standard transmission over F1 type drive trains. How was this number attained? I know that there is a general market preference for sticks vs. F1 but given the base vale of the cars, I question the 30K figure. Thank you
  • 6
    Brian Rabold Traverse City, MI May 12, 2016 at 08:39
    The $30,000-$50,000 premium placed on six-speed cars is based on a thorough review of sale prices, listing prices and many conversations with Ferrari specialists and dealers. The generation of post-Enzo era cars with manual transmissions are rapidly becoming the one collectors are focusing on. Not only have they become more collectible because of the relatively small build numbers, they are proving to be easier to sell, at least in the short term. Perhaps supply and demand will meet in the very near future and this premium will prove to be a market anomaly. For later cars such as the 612 and Superamerica, expect the addition for manual trans to stick and perhaps grow.

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