If there is one oft-repeated rumor over this long summer of questionable economic indicators, it's that entry-level collector cars can be had for ridiculously cheap right now. Joe Six Pack has lost his job and is in hock up to his eyeballs, so he's letting go of his pride-and-joy for 60 cents on the dollar – or so the rationale goes. While this certainly seems plausible, there's just one problem with the scenario: We haven't seen it actually happening this way.

Let's consider Worldwide's Auburn, Indiana, sale as our test case. To set the stage, this auction was held over Labor Day Weekend, just down the street from the troubled Kruse event we reported on last month. Half an hour from Michigan, where the unemployment rate hit nearly 15% in August, selling conditions were challenging at best. If there were truly a fire sale happening, it seems like this would have been the place to find it.

Of the 33 cars sold, 10 changed hands for less than $20,000. Among those, three qualify as market indicators. The first two are relatively mainstream models with broad appeal: A convertible 1979 VW Beetle that sold for $18,700 and a 1967 Ford Mustang with a 390 V8 that garnered $14,850. The third is a 1984 Hurst Olds Cutlass with the infamous Lightning Rods shifter which went for $14,300, and we'll explain why this one matters a bit later. (All prices include a 10% buyer's...